Lahore [Pakistan]May 29 (ANI): Pakistan’s leading economists question the tentative estimate of the country’s GDP growth rate of 3.94%, and the government’s own 2.9% GDP growth approved by the federal cabinet, led by Imran Khan. He said he would deny the rate estimate. Month. In April, the Federal Cabinet approved the Medium-Term Budget Strategy Document
Lahore [Pakistan]May 29 (ANI): Pakistan’s leading economists question the tentative estimate of the country’s GDP growth rate of 3.94%, and the government’s own 2.9% GDP growth approved by the federal cabinet, led by Imran Khan. He said he would deny the rate estimate. Month.
In April, the Federal Cabinet approved the Medium-Term Budget Strategy Document and shared it with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In this treatise, the government estimated GDP growth of 2.9% for the continuing fiscal year.
“But within two weeks, it suddenly jumped to 3.94 pc,” wonders, former Finance Minister Dr. Hafeez Pasha.
“Pakistan’s state-owned bank estimates ranged from 2.8 percent to 3 percent, while the IMF and World Bank estimates ranged from about 2 percent to 1.5 percent, respectively,” he said.
In a tweet on May 21, Prime Minister Imran Khan called NAC’s estimated 3.94 percent GDP growth a success of the government’s economic policy that succeeded in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. The V-shaped recovery is balanced among the three major sectors of agriculture and industrial services, “Khan’s tweet was read, Dawn reported.
In addition, Dr. Sajid Amin Javeid, a research fellow and head of the Policy Solutions Laboratory at the Institute for Sustainable Development Policy, specializes in 3.94% of GDP growth, even if low base effects are taken into account. He continues to report that he has taken in the opinions of the house. surprise.
“This is almost double the IMF’s highest forecast of 2 percent, revised from the original forecast of 1.5 percent. Although there were some discussions about growth rates that were slightly higher than the IMF’s forecast, Forecasts were between 2% and 2.5% at most, mainly due to good agricultural production due to a good harvest. I don’t think the manufacturing and other sectors have changed much since the IMF revised the estimates. So there was a third wave that was again forced into restricted economic activity by the pandemic. “He explained.
While discussing how realistic this number is, he said that objective assessment depends on access to information about how this number was reached and what data was used. And how does this data differ from the data provided or collected to the IMF? What has changed so significantly that the IMF has not been foreseen since April 2021? Estimates? Missing What are the surrogate variables used for the data you have? Certainly, there are some surprises in sectoral estimates, “he said.” Overall, this number is compared to current economic trends and available information. Seems to be overrated. “I think this number will be revised down significantly later. For me, the revised growth rate could be somewhere between 2 pc and 2.5 pc. It’s the highest, “he insisted.
“GDP growth for fiscal year 2019 has been revised down from the previous 3.3 percent to 1.9 percent. Every government tends to come up with the highest possible growth rate first to show performance. People in general Ignore the revised quotes. Practice takes place here, “he said.
Naved Ahmad also said the GDP growth rate of 3.94 pc was unrealistic and should have been 3.5 pc. Economist Pervis Taheel also said the 3.94% growth rate was unrealistic, and the independent operation of the Pakistan Statistics Bureau (PBS) is a transparent projection of growth.
He said growth should be around 3 percent if growth is allowed in various areas such as agriculture and industry. “But I think it jumped to about 4% and I think 1% was forcibly added,” he said.