New Delhi (AP) — India’s over-death during a pandemic could reach 10 times more than official COVID-19 victims, according to the most comprehensive study of viral damage in South Asia to date Yes, it could be the worst human tragedy in modern India. Asian country.

Most experts believe that the official Indian casualties of more than 414,000 deaths are highly undervalued, but the government has exaggerated and dismissed those concerns as misleading.

A report released on Tuesday estimated excess mortality (the gap between recorded and expected mortality) between January 2020 and June 2021 at 3 to 4.7 million. The price is “likely to be an order of magnitude larger than the official number.”

According to a report published by Arvind Subramanian, a former Chief Economic Advisor of the Government of India, and two other researchers at the Center for Global Development and Harvard University, in overwhelming hospitals or with delayed or interrupted medical care. You may have missed the death that occurred while you were there. Especially during the catastrophic peak surge earlier this year.

“The true death toll is likely to be millions instead of hundreds of thousands, which is probably the worst human tragedy since India’s division and independence,” the report said.

In 1947, the Indian subcontinent under British rule was divided into independent India and Pakistan, causing Hindu and Muslim gangs to slaughter each other, killing up to one million people.

The report on virus infection rates in India used three calculation methods. Data from a civil registration system that records births and deaths in seven states, a blood test showing the prevalence of the virus in India along with global COVID-19 mortality, and nearly 900,000 people performed three times a year ..

Researchers warned that each method had its weaknesses, such as an economic survey that omitted the cause of death.

Instead, researchers looked at mortality from all causes and compared that data to mortality over the last few years. This is a method that is widely regarded as an accurate indicator.

Researchers also warned that the prevalence of the virus and COVID-19 deaths in the seven states surveyed may not be reflected throughout India.

And while other countries believe that pandemic deaths are underestimated, India has the world’s second-largest population of 1.4 billion, with all deaths recorded even before the pandemic. The situation is complicated because it is not.

Dr. Jacob John, a virus researcher at Christian Medical College in Velor, South India, reviewed the Associated Press report, highlighting the devastating impact of COVID-19 on the country’s unprepared health system. Said that.

“This analysis reiterates the observations of other fearless investigative journalists who have highlighted a large underestimation of the dead,” Jacob said.

The report also estimated that about 2 million Indians died during the first outbreak last year, and did not “know the magnitude of the tragedy in real time”, the “fear” of the surge earlier this year. It may have led to collective complacency. ” ..

Over the past few months, some Indian states have discovered thousands of previously unreported cases, followed by an increase in COVID-19 deaths and more official deaths. There is concern that it has not been recorded.

Some Indian journalists have also used government data to publish more numbers from some states. Scientists say this new information helps to better understand how COVID-19 is spreading in India.

Murad Banaji, who studies mathematics at Middlesex University and looks at COVID-19 mortality figures in India, said recent data confirmed some of the allegations about underestimation. The new data also show that the virus is not confined to urban areas, as modern reports show, but Indian villages are also seriously affected, according to Banaji.

“The question we should ask is whether some of those deaths have been avoided,” he said.