Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker is expected to propose a state budget Wednesday that’s devoid of any income tax increase, but his spending blueprint could change dramatically if a $7.5 billion surge of federal COVID-19 relief funding materializes this spring.

Keeping a lid on new spending, the Democratic governor’s plan represents a no-frills, no-drama approach heading into a potential 2022 re-election bid where Pritzker will be judged partly on how he’s navigated Illinois through the pandemic.

Financially, the governor has the good fortune of the state weathering the coronavirus’ impact without state government’s two main funding sources – state income and sales taxes – freefalling because of the pandemic.

A new report by the legislature’s non-partisan budget-forecasting arm, the state Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, shows state income tax receipts are running nearly 10% greater than a year ago and state sales tax receipts are nearly 4% greater during the same period.

Those surprisingly strong financial results at a time of high unemployment are one reason Illinois’ pandemic-influenced fiscal picture isn’t as dire as once feared.

The Democratic-led General Assembly must approve Pritzker’s spending plan before it takes effect July 1. As proposed, it still anticipates a $3 billion budget deficit, but that isn’t as calamitous as earlier expectations of nearly $5.5 billion in red ink for Fiscal Year 2022.

Still, even those projections could be off in a matter of weeks depending on the fate of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief package awaiting congressional action.

The office of U.S. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill., estimated Monday that Illinois’ share of the COVID-19 relief plan House Democrats are advancing totals more than $7.5 billion. Another $5.7 billion would be earmarked for local governments in Illinois, including $1.8 billion for Chicago and $1 billion for Cook County.

A vote by the full U.S. House is expected within two weeks, and then the measure would move to the Democratic-led U.S. Senate.

Such an infusion would enable Pritzker’s administration to expedite repayment of more than $3 billion in pandemic-related borrowing from the Federal Reserve Bank between June and December of last year – and have money left over.

Last week the governor’s office made clear he would not be seeking an increase in the state’s 4.95% individual income tax rate. In December, former Democratic House Speaker Michael Madigan had floated that as a possibility, saying he’d help the governor push for that increase if Pritzker wanted it this spring.

The main revenue increase Pritzker is expected to put on the table is the elimination of roughly $900 million in corporate tax credits, though up until now the governor has not shed any light on where those cuts would be focused.

The governor is also expected to renew his call for lawmakers to separate Illinois tax law from federal law. When Congress enacted earlier COVID-19 relief last spring, it altered how net operating losses and excess business losses would be handled under federal law.

That provision also affected state law toward those business tax questions, resulting in an expected revenue hit to the state of $500 million. Legislative action to decouple the state from that federal provision would keep that money in Springfield.

Dave McKinney and Tony Arnold cover Illinois politics for WBEZ. Follow them on Twitter @davemckinney and @tonyjarnold.